Lessons From Other Sectors: Electricity

Electricity demand is expected to at least double by 2050 as transport, heating and industry become increasingly electrified. The need for significantly more capacity is becoming more apparent, but the exact scale and timing of that demand cannot be known with certainty. When infrastructure can take years to plan and build, decisions made today have to account for a future that cannot yet be fully specified.

Demand will continue to grow, but it will not increase evenly throughout the day. A colder evening, widespread EV charging or periods of intensive industrial activity can create significant peaks. The system therefore has to respond to these fluctuations, not simply plan for a higher overall level of demand.

Flexibility becomes crucial because managing these changing requirements involves more than building new infrastructure. The UK government plans to combine network expansion with storage and flexibility, with the aim of accommodating higher demand without simply responding to every increase by building more physical capacity.

Managing Director at Endurance, Neil Jeremiah observes:

“There’s a difference between planning for a future requirement and trying to predict exactly what that requirement will be. The electricity sector has to do the first without pretending it can do the second.

That is why I find this sector interesting. We see a similar issue when councils plan for changes in flexible plastic collections. In both cases, decisions have to be made before the full requirement is known. If you design around a forecast, you are relying on it remaining true for the life of the infrastructure. Instead, you need to consider how the system will cope when demand develops differently and make decisions that leave you more ways to respond.

In fleet operations, the specification decided today can remain in service for years while the service it supports changes. A vehicle can still be perfectly functional and yet no longer be the right answer for the operation it is being asked to support.

For me, good planning isn’t about predicting what comes next with greater precision. It is about making decisions that remain workable when the future doesn’t follow the plan.”

At Endurance, that means looking beyond the initial fleet decision and understanding how the service is developing over time. When requirements change, we adapt the fleet around the service rather than expect the service to remain tied to the original decision.

💬 When you’re making a long-term plan, how do you account for what you don’t yet know?

Our mission is to enable yours. Keep your fleet moving with our specialist vehicle services.

Follow Endurance on Linkedin for the latest news, company updates and events